Based on betting markets, media projections, and expert analyses, the strongest favorite to win the tournament is Serbia, primarily led by NBA star Nikola Jokić.
What the Odds and Experts Say
Betting Odds
- DraftKings lists Serbia with odds of +120, making them the front-runner, followed by Germany (+600), France (+700), Greece (+1100), Spain (+1600), and others farther behind (ref. CBSSports.com)
- OddsChecker shows Serbia at 6/4 (~+150), Germany at 2/1, Turkey at 8/1, Greece at 10/1, France at 15/1, and Spain trailing at 30/1 Oddschecker.com (ref.).
- bwin lists Serbia at odds of 2.80 to win, Germany at 3.30, with France and Greece further back (ref. bwin.com).
Media and Official Projections
- A media survey by FIBA shows 73.1% of accredited journalists expect Serbia to win, with Germany (10%), France (6.2%), Latvia (3.1%), Greece (2.3%), and Spain (1.5%) trailing (ref. FIBA Basketball).
Summary Table: Who’s Favored?
| Source / Perspective | Likely Winner | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Betting Odds (DraftKings) | Serbia | +120, clear favorite |
| Betting Odds (OddsChecker) | Serbia | 6/4 |
| Betting Odds (bwin) | Serbia | 2.80 vs Germany 3.30 |
| FIBA Media Survey | Serbia | 73.1% vote share |
| Contenders | Germany, France… | Germany seen as top challenger |
What This Means for the Outcome
While Serbia is the overwhelming favorite according to both betting markets and expert consensus, it’s important to remember that anything can happen in knockout basketball. Germany, with their depth and chemistry, is the most frequently cited challenger, along with France and a few others.
So, while we can’t know the actual winner yet, the odds and media projections currently point strongly toward Serbia.
🇷🇸 Serbia (Favorites)
- Star Power: Nikola Jokić is playing at MVP level, dominating the paint and orchestrating the offense.
- Supporting Cast: Vasilije Micić and Bogdan Bogdanović provide elite guard play, though there were recent concerns about Micić’s fitness (ref.(AS.com).
- Momentum: Serbia came into the tournament as heavy favorites, and early performances suggest they’re living up to that billing.
🇩🇪 Germany (Challenger #1)
- Star Power: Dennis Schröder continues to be a leader, both scoring and facilitating. Franz Wagner adds versatility as a two-way wing.
- Chemistry: The 2023 World Cup champions still have most of their core intact, giving them continuity and confidence.
- Recent News: They’ve already picked up a key win over Lithuania, though the game was marred by an incident involving racist taunts (ref. (TOI).
🇫🇷 France (Dark Horse)
- Star Power: Victor Wembanyama is making his EuroBasket debut and already proving to be a defensive force.
- Experience: With Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier, and other veterans, France blends youth and experience.
- Form: Analysts say they’re inconsistent so far, but with Wemby they can be a nightmare matchup in the knockouts.
Other Notables
- Spain 🇪🇸: Once dominant, but media now rank them poorly compared to top contenders (ref.(AS.com).
- Greece 🇬🇷: Giannis Antetokounmpo makes them dangerous, but depth is still a question.
- Latvia 🇱🇻: Host nation, passionate crowd, and sneaky strong roster—possible surprise package.
Summary:
- Serbia → Still the clear favorite (Jokić factor + strong roster).
- Germany → The biggest challenger, solid chemistry and recent momentum.
- France → The wildcard, Wemby could swing games in their favor.
Lithuania chances at EuroBasket 2025
🇱🇹 Lithuania’s Current Situation
- Group: B
- Record: 2–1 (behind Germany and Finland, both 3–0).
- Position: Sitting in 3rd place, which is still within the top 4 advancing to the Round of 16.
Recent Performances
- Lost to Germany (highlighted by Dennis Schröder’s big performance, plus an incident involving racist taunts from a fan — (ref. TOI report).
- Won their other two games, showing strong offensive balance.
- Key scorers like Jonas Valančiūnas are keeping them competitive inside.
Chances Going Forward
✅ Strengths
- Elite big men (Valančiūnas, Birutis, Blaževič and Tubelis): dominate rebounds and inside scoring.
- Deep guard rotation: Rokas Jokubaitis, Normantas, Velička, Sargiūnas provide shooting and playmaking.
- Tradition & Experience: Lithuania always performs well in EuroBasket — they’re considered a tournament team.
⚠️ Weaknesses
- Perimeter defense: struggled against quicker guards (Germany exposed this).
- Outside shooting consistency: hot-and-cold, which could be dangerous in knockout games.
- Tough draw: finishing 3rd in the group could mean facing a stronger opponent earlier (possibly France or Greece).
Expert Outlook
- FIBA Media Predictions: Only ~2% of surveyed journalists picked Lithuania to win the tournament — so they’re considered an underdog (ref. (FIBA survey).
- Betting Odds: Lithuania sits in the mid-tier pack, behind Serbia, Germany, France, Greece, and Spain. They’re not favorites, but not long-shots either.
Bottom Line
- Lithuania will almost certainly reach the Round of 16, and could realistically push into the quarterfinals.
- To reach the semifinals or finals, they’d need Tubelis, Birutis, Blaževič, Valančiūnas to dominate and the shooters to stay hot.
- They’re dark horses — not expected to win it all, but dangerous enough to upset a contender.
